Rollenspiele » to Steph Curry. Ill wager Hills season will be a little

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Pepper/Magical Mystery Tour) as being his hot period. Id add 1973, the year of Band on the Run and Live and Let Die. Nearly all of the 25 songs he primarily wrote and recorded across those three years comprised about a third of his set at Oldchella last month. I paid a ton of money to see him play.The human mind curates a well-lit, shatterproof-glass display case for our personal hot streaks. As we age, and our personal mean increasingly solidifies, it becomes easier to identify the eras when we really had things going.As an early-pubescent power forward, I had a four-game hot streak in seventh grade in which I averaged 12 points per game -- double my PPG average for that era. (I was more of a Laimbeer-esque instigator). This streak was largely based on my ability to hit a shot from one spot on the court at the end of a certain designed play. For four games, I hit that shot nearly every time. Then I regressed to the mean. Two years later, I was out of basketball and in Pirates of Penzance.What does all this have to do with you?Plenty.Because its my job to help you frame fantasy production in relative terms.Over the first month of the season, we tend to overreact to strong starts. This overreaction becomes pronounced when it comes to point production and field goal percentage performance.One stat I like to use when taking someones shot-making temperature is effective field goal percentage (eFG%). Effective field percentage accounts for the extra point generated by a successively converted 3-pointer.Its calculated like this: (2pt FGM + 1.5 x 3PT FGM / FGA)The average NBA eFG is right about 50 percent (Monta Ellis). Elite eFG% starts around 55 percent (Rodney Hood). Top-shelf eFG% starts around 60 percent (Clint Capela).Im wizened. I have traded for Raef LaFrentz at 3 a.m. And I am here to tell you which hot-shooting starts indicate a season-long trend ... and which are bound for regression.(For perspective purposes, Im supplying career eFG%, last seasons eFG% and current eFG%.)Kevin Durant, SF/PF, Golden State WarriorsCareer eFG%: .519 2015-16 eFG%: .569 Current eFG%: .618Its not an obscure topic, but I am obsessed with how Durant has adapted to the Warriors offense.So far, Durant has provided a rough approximation of his Oklahoma City fantasy production (17.75 player rater points in 2015-16, 16.97 player rater points in 2016-17). All despite averaging his lowest usage rate (26.9) since 2009.Durants doing it all via efficiency. And its not all coming from where youd expect.One would assume Durant is simply lighting it up from downtown via the extra space provided by Steph Curry and company. But Durants current .404 3-point percentage is basically on par with his 3-point percentage since 2011.Plus his volume of 3-point attempts is markedly down (only 4.7 attempts versus 6.7 in 2015-16), which would normally lead to a drop in eFG%. Yet Durant is currently posting a career-high-busting .618 eFG% because of a boost in 2-point production.Durant is hitting a career-high 62 percent of his 2-pointers (previous high: 57 percent). Seventy-four percent of his shots this season are 2-pointers. And the extra boost in attempts isnt coming from mid-range, where youd expect streakiness.Durant is getting more dunks and layups. The kind of shots one tends not to miss.To date, a career-high 30 percent of Durants attempts are coming inside of three feet. Fourteen percent of all of Durants shot attempts are dunks. Durant is hitting 83 percent of his shots in the 0-3 foot range.Maybe defenses learn to adjust to Durants cuts. But I wouldnt bet on it. It looks like the Warriors spacing has resulted in a permanent shift in Durants shot selection.Durants eFG%: HOLDDamian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail BlazersCareer eFG%: .504 2015-16 eFG%: .497 Current eFG%: .538Lillard is scoring at Iversonian levels (29.8 points per game). Heres the question with Lillard: Are we seeing a peak-year (age 26) rise in 3-point efficiency, reminiscent of Steph Curry?No. Were not.Like with Durant, Lillard is performing slightly below career-high levels in 3-point production. Hes shooting 37 percent from downtown this season. In 2015-16, Lillard shot 37 percent from downtown. His volume of 3-point attempts (7.1) is down about 1 per game.Lillards eFG% boost is coming from inside the arc. He is hitting a career-high 52 percent of his 2-pointers.Lillard has increased his attempts from 0-3 feet, just like Durant. However, only four percent of Lillards attempts are dunks. Resullt: Lillards percentage in this range is lower (.dddddddddddd645).Overall, Lillard has been more efficient from the floor because hes getting to the hoop with greater frequency. But the dramatic boost in Lillards scoring (from 25.3 points to 29.7) is mostly coming from the other area that increases when players go to the hoop: free throw production.Lillard has posted better than a 50 percent increase in free throw attempts (6.2 FTA to 9.6 FTA) over his 2015-16 average. And you probably know Lillard (like Curry) owns one of the best free throw percentages in the NBA (currently .913, career .873).As long as Lillard can survive the increase in driving, theres no reason to believe hell suffer a dramatic dropoff. As a matter of fact, his still-mediocre 3-point percentage suggests theres additional ceiling for the taking.Lillards eFG%: HOLDDeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto RaptorsCareer eFG%: .458 2015-16 eFG%: .463 Current eFG%: .520Hes scoring 32.5 points per game! Over the past 10 games, DeRozan has been floating in rare Jordan-esque air.DeRozan has never been a good 3-point shooter, though. Outside of last season, Id volunteer that DeRozan -- by wing standards -- is a terrible 3-point shooter.His career percentage? .283. This season? .263. Hes contributing only 0.5 3-pointers a night.So, where are those extra 9-10 points per night coming from?Unlike Durant and Lillard, its not from up close. Ninety-two percent of DeRozans attempts are 2-pointers. Only 14 percent of those are coming from 0-3 feet. Only 22 percent are from 3-10 feet.Instead, DeRozan has dramatically upped his mid-range-to-deep 2-point shot attempts. Hes launching these shots -- eFG% killers -- at 1970s levels. Thirty-one percent?of DeRozans shots are coming from 16-21 feet. At present, hes hitting 51 percent of them!DeRozans career mark from 16-20 feet? Thirty-eight percent.He cant keep this up. Hes on the definition of a hot streak.DeRozans eFG%: SELLGiannis Antetokounmpo, PG/SG/SF/PF, Milwaukee BucksCareer eFG%: .503 2015-16 eFG%: .520 Current eFG%: .535Im listing Antetokounmpo because hes an example of a player who has all kinds of room to grow in eFG%.Fifty-one percent of Antetokounmpos field goal attempts are from 0-3 feet. Hes making 75 percent of those. Only 15 percent of his attempts come from behind the 3-point line (for good reason, as hes hitting only 19 percent of them).As Antetokounmpo continues to put it all together, and his range expands, his efficiency will increase. It will be interesting to watch how his efficiency and volume shifts over the next couple of seasons.Even within this season, Antetokounmpo should improve. He should up his 3-point percentage somewhere in the area of his career mark (27 percent).Antetokounmpos eFG%: BUYGeorge Hill, PG, Utah JazzCareer eFG%: .519 2015-16 eFG%: .528 Current eFG%: .622Hills explosion is tougher to peg. A regression is expected. But Hills situation is muddled by the fact that hes on a new team thats lacking a go-to veteran scorer. And he has shown flashes of this type of efficiency in the past (21.5 PER in 2014-15).One other big factor in field goal performance? Contract year.Hill is a free agent next summer. He has landed in a perfect spot to pad his numbers. If he stays healthy, Hill is in line for a career year. But age 30 would be a little late to suddenly morph into Steph Curry. Ill wager Hills season will be a little closer to Darren Collison than Steve Nash.And unfortunately, Hill isnt the kind of household name that tends to sell high in a trade. Instead, youre probably better off hanging onto him and keeping his overproduction (relative to his ADP) to yourself.Hills eFG%: SELL (but hold onto him)P.S.?My top musical hot streaks: Mozart 1790-91, Schubert 1827-28, Chopin 1838-39, Stephen Foster 1850-54, Sinatra 1953-57, Oscar Peterson 1956-58, Horace Silver 1959-61, Dylan 1963-66, Beach Boys 1965-66, The Kinks 1965-68, Magic Sam 1967-69, Otis Redding 1965-67, Velvet Underground 1967-68, Curtis Mayfield/Impressions 1968-1972, Elvis 1968-69, Nick Drake 1969-72, Donnie Hathaway 1970-73, Al Green 1971-73, Stevie Wonder 1971-74, Big Star 1972-75, Schoolhouse Rock 1973-75, Sex Pistols October 1976-March 1977P.P.S.?My top film-making hot streaks: Welles 1941-42, Hitchcock 1934-38, Preston Sturges 1941-44, Andrei Tarkovsky 1962-66, Russ Meyer 1965-70, Frederick Wiseman 1967-70, Altman 1970-75, Michael Ritchie 1969-76, Bob Fosse 1972-79 ... and I could marshal a winning argument that Quentin Tarantino has never made a bad full-length movie. 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